Fold Equity – It’s Half the Battle
Here are two hands that I got it all in with the best and lost. The reason I am writing about them is that they are a good contrast to see how getting it all in with the worst in the second hand is a far superior play to getting it all-in in the first hand.
Full Tilt Poker Game #1199056798: Table Coral Isle (6 max) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold’em - 11:37:37 ET - 2006/11/05
Seat 1: Barny Boatman ($1,979.55)
Seat 4: iRockhoes ($10,382.50)
Seat 5: ceczar ($5,000)
Barny Boatman posts the small blind of $25
iRockhoes posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to iRockhoes [8s 8d]
Barny Boatman raises to $150
Barny Boatman: nh
iRockhoes raises to $450
I had just won a pretty big pot off Barny putting him down to 2k, so he may be willing to gamble.
Barny Boatman calls $300
I have reraised twice in the entire heads up match of about 150 hands. I have to have a pair or AK, AQ maybe. He calls. If he had a better pair or AK, I think he throws the rest in here.
*** FLOP *** [3c 4s 3d]
iRockhoes bets $9,932.50, and is all in
I push because I have to be ahead. There is really no other way to see it. The pot is 900 I want to take it right here against his probable 30% equity with two overs. I bet 1500.
Barny Boatman has 15 seconds left to act
Barny Boatman calls $1,529.55, and is all in
Opponent makes a really bad call here. If he thought I had a hand like KQ or worse than AJ, he should have pushed preflop. He then gains fold equity against hands like 88. Instead he calls an overbet as a 3:1 underdog.
iRockhoes shows [8s 8d]
Barny Boatman shows [Jc Ah]
Uncalled bet of $8,402.95 returned to iRockhoes
*** TURN *** [3c 4s 3d] [Jh]
*** RIVER *** [3c 4s 3d Jh] [4d]
iRockhoes shows two pair, Eights and Fours
Barny Boatman shows two pair, Jacks and Fours
Barny Boatman wins the pot ($3,958.60) with two pair, Jacks and Fours
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3,959.10 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3c 4s 3d Jh 4d]
Seat 1: Barny Boatman (small blind) showed [Jc Ah] and won ($3,958.60) with two pair, Jacks and Fours
Seat 4: iRockhoes (big blind) showed [8s 8d] and lost with two pair, Eights and Fours
Seat 5: ceczar is sitting out
Now here is a much better way to get your chips in the middle behind.
Full Tilt Poker Game #1199075336: Table Rock Port (6 max) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold’em - 11:43:25 ET - 2006/11/05
Seat 1: Steve Zolotow ($3,833)
Seat 2: iRockhoes ($6,949)
Seat 3: BRING_DA_NOISE ($4,431)
Seat 4: ceczar ($5,922)
Seat 5: The_Houdini ($2,465)
BRING_DA_NOISE posts the small blind of $25
ceczar posts the big blind of $50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to iRockhoes [Kh Kc]
The_Houdini raises to $175
Steve Zolotow folds
iRockhoes calls $175
I smooth call with kings here because I have position, we are not very deep, and there is a good chance the players in the blinds will squeeze.
BRING_DA_NOISE folds
ceczar folds
*** FLOP *** [Th 5c Td]
The_Houdini bets $300
iRockhoes calls $300
I hit a pretty good flop. I am probably ahead, though it will be hard to get action because any bet I make looks like a 10.
*** TURN *** [Th 5c Td] [3c]
The pot is 1000, He pushes for 2k. He can’t possibly have a 10. His bet is good however, because it makes his hand look something like 99 or JJ. If I had 88 or worse, I probably lay this down. I probably don’t have a 10 or a pair greater than JJ because I smooth called preflop. There is a lot of hands I will fold here. I happen to have one that I won’t.
The_Houdini bets $1,990, and is all in
iRockhoes calls $1,990
The_Houdini shows [Ac Qc]
iRockhoes shows [Kh Kc]
*** RIVER *** [Th 5c Td 3c] [7c]
The river gives him one of his 12 outs (Though if I had JJ he would have as many as 15). When the turn comes, you are either going to give up on the hand or go with it. He decides to make a play with a ton of outs against a player who will probably fold a lot of the hands he might have.
The_Houdini shows a flush, Ace high
iRockhoes shows two pair, Kings and Tens
The_Houdini wins the pot ($5,002) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $5,005 | Rake $3
Board: [Th 5c Td 3c 7c]
Seat 1: Steve Zolotow didn’t bet (folded)
Seat 2: iRockhoes (button) showed [Kh Kc] and lost with two pair, Kings and Tens
Seat 3: BRING_DA_NOISE (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: ceczar (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: The_Houdini showed [Ac Qc] and won ($5,002) with a flush, Ace high
Fold equity- or the added value your hand gains because your opponent might fold- is a very important concept to take advantage of when betting your hands. Both players got all in behind about 3:1, but the call by Barny was atrocious, whereas the play by The Houdini is not a play to make every time, but definitely has some merit to it in the long run.

February 12th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
Great way to explain a complicated concept in an easy way….If I understood it just about anyone could. Yeah, barny is pretty bad….keep on giving us lessons.. thanks
February 28th, 2007 at 7:25 am
I agree. I lived in England for 8 years and have played with Barny several times. He is a pretty decent player but often makes some really bad moves. I agree with you on the second hand as well, you have to think that you’re in great shape with that flop and turn. However, to often I find online players willing to risk the entire bankroll on draws, they don’t don’t calculate all the odds, just hopfe for the best. I do think you were wrong though, I don’t think he has 12 outs. If a 10 or K of clubs come you win with Full House, thus taking 2 of his outs. That to my guess would leave him 3 A’s and 6 clubs for a total of 9…am I right? Why does JJ give him 15 outs? Wouldn’t he only have 2 outs because you have overpair? That makes his play even worse. I enjoy watching you on FTP…good luck and keep building that bankroll!